Should I Borrow, or Do Something Else?

Many people have noble objectives but it is tough to make them a reality because of adverse financial circumstances. Hence, they typically approach credit institutions for necessary backing, albeit with varying rates of success. There are numerous loan types to choose from, along with a list of lending corporations that offer them. However, with the appropriate fiscal disposition, acquiring credit should take relatively little effort.

However, these efforts sometimes prove futile on grounds of credit scores, security deposit requirements, income levels and other circumstances. Furthermore, upon approval, the dilemma of repayment becomes a heavier cross to bear – with respect to the risks involved with the venture and the absence of readily available repayment options.

Risks are inconvenient facts of life, and dealing with them becomes doubly challenging when a dead end is in sight. Loans are a viable source of funding, but can there be other ways that involve less risk? Are they any better?

Let us methodically discuss the potential alternative: Grants.

Eligibility for a grant does not require even one of the obstacles mentioned earlier when applying for credit. Truth be told, grants do not even originate from any loan establishment to begin with. Hence, no repayment is obligatory.

Instead, grant funding originates from government institutions or private philanthropic foundations. These organizations have an objective that correlates with helping people get back on track. A grant may be a sliver of hope as many lives have positively changed due to it.

However, there is no thing such as free lunch. There are some variables which undermine the viability of this alternative.

Hardly anyone knows that grants exist and even fewer know how they work. Moreover, eligibility requirements vary from one grant to another. Given an array of grants to potentially choose from, determining the optimum choice can prove to be exquisitely difficult. With the number of organizations to submit requests to, ascertaining the most effective writing style for a proposal is a daunting task. Essentially, it takes a degree of expertise and knowledge to facilitate navigation through these channels, and that is something that seems to be out-of-reach for most.

But then, the question still stands: Should one go for a loan or a grant?

It must be realized that the two options are not mutually exclusive. Thus, the question should rather be rephrased into which of the two must take precedence over the other.

From what has been thoroughly discussed, the following are clear:

1. Loans come with the risk of defaulting, while grants virtually come with none.

2. Credit applications do not automatically preclude the conferral of grants and vice-versa.

3. Grants come with no obligation for repayment. However, applying for one may be unmanageable for an average person.

With some assessment, the logical first-choice would be grants – only if one can find expert assistance for the application process. Honestly, it would be too cumbersome otherwise, so much so that the application period could have expired even before one actually finishes deciding whether to apply or not.

Bankrupt? Not Yet!

Bankruptcy is a very touchy topic for most people until recently. This concept is gradually becoming a harsh reality not just for big corporate entities, but also the average person. Companies have closed one by one, and more people get laid off from their jobs.

Bankruptcy should be considered only as a last resort. Bankruptcy proceedings can be subscribed to only once per decade, therefore emphasizing the reality that it is, and should be, the last bullet. Hence, one must exploit all other options before doing so, for the after-effects of a declaration of insolvency does not only ruin one’s chances of being approved for credit in the future, but also exposes a person to the social stigma that comes with it.

If a person sees that both ends cannot meet, perhaps due to the lack of savings or pension coupled by unemployment, there is another option: Unemployment Loans.

Unemployment loans can be any of the two types: Secured or unsecured.

Secured loans are charged with lower interest rates compared to the other. However, this loan classification requires collateral, while the other does not. Thus, a careful decision about which to avail is essential to minimizing financial risk. Additionally, unsecured loans come with a shorter repayment period of about 7 years, compared to secured loans whose repayment period usually lasts for a decade. Essentially, each type comes with its pros and cons.

There are requirements for unemployment loan applications. A person must have a checking account that has been active for at least 6 months and the person must be of legal age. As soon as the loan gets approved, funds will be immediately deposited to the checking account. Hence, personal loans of this kind are much easier to avail and are more responsive to the issue at hand.

However, remember that just like any other kind of financial aid, this is nothing that will ever resemble a free lunch. One must be absolutely certain that the element of necessity and the eventual ability to repay is present. Financial responsibility is an indispensable facet of economic progress. As a matter of fact, the lack of it is that which caused this whole economy to dip into this dire situation to begin with.

Tenant Loans over Credit Card Cash Advances

Unemployment is on the rise, and a lot of average wage earners are losing jobs at an unprecedented rate. In the worst cases, even basic human needs, such as decent shelter, are becoming increasingly difficult to meet. In everyday terms, it is now much harder to “pay the rent.” The quickest way to fix this is to utilize readily available credit lines, i.e. credit card cash advances. However, there exists a better alternative – tenant loans.

These loans work better than credit cards in 3 respects: Lower interest rates, friendlier repayment terms, and its distinction from revolving credit lines (i.e. credit cards).

Based on one’s credit score, these loans are offered at yearly interest rates ranging from about 7% to 18%, with a majority at 10.9%. Meanwhile, credit card rates range from 6% to as much as 37++%, with most rates ranging from 15 to 20%. Thus, on the average, a debtor who acquires this particular type of structured loan will have to pay less in the long run, compared to getting a cash advance from a credit card account.

Tenant Loans have more debtor-friendly repayment terms [7++ years] than credit card cash advances. Cash advances, though not containing strict repayment deadlines, have very stringent balance payment schedules. An exorbitant percentage of the current balance is typically required by credit card companies for a debtor to maintain good standing. With the former option, monthly income can be more flexibly budgeted as only a drastically smaller part of it will be required to service debt.

Furthermore, being a separate credit entity, these loans will free up one’s credit cards, thereby effecting two-fold benefits: cards may now be used for other more relevant expenses, and it minimizes these cards’ average daily balance. The reduction of a card’s average daily balance may seem to be a purely cosmetic benefit, but it can actually help improve one’s credit risk score.

All in all, tenant loans, as compared to credit cards, are more responsive to the immediate need for rental payments. Basically, it is saying than one can get the same thing for much, much less.

Getting a Car is Not Impossible

The global economy is on a big crunch and everyone can feel its effects. With delayed benefits and massive layoffs, it gets harder and harder to make both ends meet. Because of this, payments on credit cards and other loans by the average John Doe may sometimes get delayed, causing a big dip on his credit scores.

Loan applicants with low credit scores find it harder to get loans because they are deemed to be of higher credit risk based on the standards of most financial institutions. Those who fall under this category usually cease from applying for more loans right away.

But then, with respect to the current times, there are some things which one cannot live without. For people who live in country or those who work in the city but live somewhere out-of-town, access to mass transportation is very limited. Thus, having a reliable means of transportation becomes a necessity. But what does one do if he is just an average wage earner, hit hard by the economic crisis, badly needing a car, and got his auto loan application rejected?

There is an answer: a second chance auto loan. This is basically the similar to a regular auto loan, except that it comes with a higher interest rate in order to account for the higher credit risk. This allows a person with a low credit rating to be able to get a car, albeit at higher periodic payments. Nevertheless, this is a glint of hope for those who have already given up. It actually is.

One precaution must be taken before going any further, though. The loan applicant must do some research before going straight to a company that offers such loans. A lot of these companies offer this service just for the sake of making money, without consideration for the actual ability of the client to pay back. In short, this financial instrument is a double-edged sword if not done right.

So if you were someone who wants to have a car, ask yourself: How badly do you need it? If you really do, study all the options and ask experts. No matter how we put it, this is a chance to change your life… for the better.

Mortgage Loans Made Easy

The fact that credit instruments have now become an absolute necessity is far from debatable. With the current economic structure, loans and other financial products are now a daily reality. But with the increasing complexity of financial mumbo-jumbo, it is easy for a person to fail to make optimal decisions in as far as his financial well-being is concerned.

Let us now have a look at what “No Credit Check Mortgage Loans” are, and let us compare them to the more conventional mortgage loans.

Almost every loan application is first examined by an institution via credit checks – inquiries to credit reporting agencies like Experian, Equifax and TransUnion. Whether an application is accepted or not rests heavily on the results of these inquiries. Unfortunately, a lot of applications are turned down due to low scores, thus disabling a lot people from obtaining much-needed credit lines. Basically, this is how conventional mortgage loan applications are screened.

Therefore, it is usually difficult to obtain conventional mortgage loans, as they often require extensive (and impeccable) credit histories. This is an inconvenient truth for a lot of people who either went through many involuntary economic hardships at some point, or who are just starting out in life, thus making it next-to-impossible to possess such a background.

Meanwhile, “No Credit Check Mortgage Loans” work differently. Instead of determining the acceptability an application based on credit scores, other metrics are considered. A person’s current financial disposition (income, current debt, etc) and personal references are used as primary indicators. Hence, it is possible for someone to acquire a mortgage loan in spite of a less-than-satisfactory credit report.

However, here is a word of caution: because the latter relies on less-established banking principles, these instruments often come with higher interest rates and stricter terms for repayment. Hence, it is high advisable for a prospective applicant to gather as much information as possible in order to minimize eventual repayment costs.

It is best to study all options thoroughly. A good decision is an informed decision, and the author hopes that this article has helped the reader in going to that route.

The Best Alternative to Medical Insurance

Cosmetic procedures – these are things that a lot of people frown about. Most people regard these procedures as something that one can simply live without. Some argue that aesthetic surgeries are the realm of the superficial, that the best way to deal with this is to be contented with one’s self.

But then, is the right path to contentment and the choice of having such procedures mutually exclusive, or do they go hand in hand? This seems to be quite easy to answer, but if one answers this question in less than ten seconds, then he is answering it too quickly.

Some people are either born with an aesthetic defect, or have acquired such, to an extent that radically lowers their quality of life. Sometimes, even those that most see as trivial, end up as being positively life-changing for others.

For a person with a cleft lip whose profession has to do with sales and marketing, a simple reconstructive procedure can drastically improve his life. For a person who has a large and inconveniently-placed birthmark, that which undeniably impairs his or her social skills, a cosmetic procedure will do wonders. These are things which may initially look petty, but are real problems that some will need to face.

Unfortunately, health care in the modern world is not something that is friendly to the average person’s pocket. Thus, most people subscribe to medical insurance plans to deal with this fact. However, this kind of financial instrument has never been known to cover such procedures, as they are deemed to be non-life-threatening and thus can be set aside. But what good is a life that is not worth living?

So how does one tackle this financial issue? Surely, there must be a way.

Medical loans. These are credit instruments which allow a person to afford having these procedures without burning his wallet at the same time. Starting at 7.25% APR, these loans can be even more competitive that an actual credit card. Hence, getting that procedure that one has longed for his whole life is not impossible anymore. With medical loans, an average person can change his whole view of life into something that he wants and needs,

A lot of people say that vanity is the root of all evil, but there are numerous reasons not to believe so.

For the Self-Employed: How to Get Approved for Loans Fast

It is common knowledge that self-employed individuals find a harder time in applying for loans, compared to those who work in large institutions. The primary reason for this is the fact that financial information for the self-employed are more difficult to verify. Non-standard forms, instability of average income and other factors affect this. If one is self employed, applying for a loan need not be this hard. Truth be told, there are ways for one to prepare beforehand for the time when loans will be needed.

One needs to pay taxes honestly and diligently. The main gauge for creditworthiness for the self-employed sector of the economy is the income tax statement. This document decides the overall financial value of a person and when compared to previous years, will serve as a very good indicator of financial stability on the borrower’s part. Although paying tax dues can be a very time-consuming and tedious process, it really pays off to settle one’s obligations for this primary reason.

It is wise to gradually build up credit score. Even small bills like credit cards, or even payments on student loans, affect one’s credit rating. A prospective borrower should never take these seemingly petty things for granted. Every late payment, every overdraft, and every promissory note has an adverse effect on credit decisions in the future.

Organizing papers is a must. As is it already pointed out that credit investigators are not very keen at digging through heaps of nonstandard documentation (or the sore lack of documentation in some very extreme cases), it is very advisable to keep financial documents organized. One should hire an accountant or bookkeeper for this task in the event that the volume of paperwork is too much handle alone. No matter what happens, one must be sure that he or she can easily pull out vital information right away at any given point in time.

Unfortunately, there is no such thing as a magic potion for self-employed loan application woes. But at least, if all these four guidelines are followed, getting loans for the self-employed will be much, much easier.

Loans 101

Nowadays, one can easily borrow funds via Instant Decision Loans. However, a lot of people are not sufficiently informed about how these mechanisms work. Therefore, we will define a few terms that are commonly encountered when applying for such.

First, let us define the term credit score. A credit score indicates a borrower’s potential credit risk. It is the likelihood that a debtor will repay the amount owed – a higher credit score means a better capacity to do so. These are usually computed using the FICO system, based on information that is collected and reported by the three major credit reporting agencies – Equifax, TransUnion, and Experian.

Next is the term “Principal”. It is the amount of money borrowed, which is determined by several factors – the borrower’s credit risk, federal regulations, and the actual amount that the borrower wishes to get. It is the amount on which the actual monetary value of interest is based. The bigger the principal, the bigger the interest. Hence, it is advisable to borrow no more than what is needed.

Third, let’s talk about APR. The APR, or Annual Percentage Rate, denotes the rate of interest that will be applied to a certain loan. To get the estimated interest per month, it is divided by a factor of 12, which is the number of months in a year. The APR is dependent on the type of loan and the credit score of the borrower. Some banks offer APR promotions like 0% for a certain time for a certain amount.

Lastly is the payment term. A payment term refers to the time allotted for the borrower to repay his or her loan. If the debtor is unable to repay the total amount of the loan within this specified period, the load is said to have “defaulted”. This is a harsh realoty not only for instant decision loan borrowes, but also debtors in general.

Learning the meaning of these basic terms is essential is one important step towards fostering financial responsibility. This is not only important for the person concerned, but also for the general well-being of the national economy.

Buying a Car with Bad Credit

Having a reliable means of transportation is a necessity for the modern individual. However, the sheer cost of a single automobile tends to be prohibitively expensive for the average person, so that securing car loans is usually required. Furthermore, the issue becomes even more complicated if the loan applicant has bad credit, which causes most financial companies to automatically reject some applications.

Fortunately, there are special institutions who can offer these loans in spite of bad credit, but like anything else on earth, there are factors to consider before applying for a loan from a particular lender.

The issue of “need” is the first consideration. Obviously, one has to first consult conventional lenders – those that rely more on credit scores – before consulting anyone else. These institutions typically offer lower interest rates which are beneficial to the debtor in every possible way. Applying for adverse credit car loans should only be considered in instances where one is certain that conventional loan package options have already run out. Essentially, this should be the LAST resort.

Now, suppose that one’s current financial disposition is far-from-satisfactory – that all the conventional options have been depleted – then it is time to shop around for adverse credit lenders. There are no specific limits on how the terms and conditions of such loans will be set, so price quotes from different institutions vary widely. Hence, it is important to thoroughly research about one’s choices to optimize one’s capability to pay back. The credit situation is bad enough, so there is no reason for someone to make it worsen.

Lastly, assuming that the potential borrower has decided on which financial institution to apply at, it is vital for the borrower to collect as much pertinent backup information as possible. Tax documents, income statements, personal referral and such, are a big help towards having the loan approved.

One should not bother having a lawnmower if there is no lawn. By this, it is implied that the three elements – necessity, practicality, and preparedness -- must all be present, before buying a car with bad credit.

Before Getting a Bad Credit Cell Phone

Everything today is almost always connected with credit ratings and reports. Applications for cellular phone plans are not exempt from that. Every day, thousands upon thousands of applications get instantly rejected for one reason – bad credit. However, it is still possible for someone with an unsatisfactory credit score to get a “Bad Credit Cell Phone.” It is to be noted, however, that the quality of the plans are identical to the conventional phone plans, and the only reason for this kind of terminology is to describe how it is obtained.

Unlike regular postpaid plans, some of these “special” packages include heftier fees for various features, along with more severe penalties for financially erring subscribers. Hence, there are two major factors to consider before applying for a bad credit cell phone, and these will be discussed in detail throughout this article.

First, is it possible to obtain a “regular” plan even with bad credit? Yes it is. Several mobile phone service providers can offer such plans. However, a security deposit is often required to offset the comparatively high risk of the subscriber not taking care of his or her bills. Security deposits range from a few hundred dollars and can go over a thousand dollars. These deposits will be withheld by the phone company as long as the account is still active. Hence, unless a prospective subscriber is amenable to such a deal, it is wise to slightly hold back.

The next issue is the fine print. Some mobile phone companies have the tendency to play with legalese, or legal talk. With this fact, a lot of unsuspecting subscribers get caught up in something that they did not know they had. One good example is when a person gets a phone, decides to send it back after a couple of months, only to realize that he has a commitment period of at least 1 year. This is devastating for a lot of people because it will force them to pay for a service that they do not wish to use, simply because they did not know beforehand what they went into.

To sum it up, before one applies for such a mobile phone plan, he/she must check first if there still are other feasible alternatives, and just in case there aren’t any, be certain than he/she knows how deep the pool is, before diving in.

Let's Have a Gold Party!

If you are tired of fundraisers that’s time consuming and never seems to generate the amount that is needed, then maybe it’s about time to try holding a gold party.

Yes, you read it right, A GOLD PARTY!

Sounds unfamiliar? Well, for the uninitiated, gold parties are the newest fad to hit the fundraising train today.

Here’s how it works:

Contact gold buyers in your area to partner with you in the benefit. This will be beneficial through an agreement for them to donate a percentage of their purchases to your cause.If you are lucky, you come across buyers who are willing to foot the bill for the party – venue, food, invitations and décor.

Now all you have to do is invite locals who have unwanted pieces of gold jewelry from single earrings to necklaces with broken clasps to sell them at the fair you will be organizing. Not only will this earn them money, it would also do away with clutter.

But that’s not where it ends; you can also incorporate the event with other fundraising ventures such as bake sales and selling raffle tickets. This is getting to do a fundraiser minus the cost as this has already been shouldered by the gold buyers.

And if fate smiles down on you more, some gold buyers also agree to pay referral fees or compensate you for organizing efforts.That’s a win-win solution for you, your organization, the participants and the buyers.

And at the end of the long day, everybody goes home happy.

Divorce in Georgia

Divorce is a difficult process for any couple.

Truth be told, parties involved would rather hand all the work to their lawyers without having to sit in court or even see each other if possible. Aside from the stressful proceedings, there are other things to consider, especially in view of children and properties.

Many divorces have become long-drawn, bitter processes when parties involved have been ill-advised or when one of the parties wants more than what is due to them. Hence, it is indeed very beneficial to lessen the emotional hassle that the proceedings would entail. However, it is also important for both parties involved to be knowledgeable of divorce laws as well as their options.

The State of Georgia defines 13 grounds for divorce one of which is called “irretrievably broken” or “no-fault” ground. The law says that to get a divorce on no-fault ground, one party must be able to show that he or she is not anymore willing to cohabit with the other, and that there is no more hope for “reunification.” However, it is not required for the other side to concur that the marriage is indeed in that state. Furthermore, it is also not required to demonstrate the actual presence of some shortcoming on the part of either. Hence, this by far is the least complicated ground to file for divorce which could mean a faster conclusion to the whole debacle.

The other 12 are fault grounds may be invoked only upon the capability of the plaintiff to demonstrate the commission of an act of wrongdoing by any of the parties. This is not only complicated, but may also cause more emotional damage on both sides. This list of twelve include adultery, desertion, mental or physical abuse, marriage between persons who are too closely related, mental incapacity at the time of marriage, impotency at the time of marriage, force or fraud in obtaining the marriage, pregnancy of the wife unknown to the husband at the time of the marriage, conviction and imprisonment for certain crimes, habitual intoxication or drug addiction and mental illness.

But then, regardless of the ground claimed for divorce, one condition of filing for divorce in Georgia is a six-month residency for one of the spouses.

To file for divorce, information on the marriage must be prepared including present living arrangements, children of the marriage, assets, debts and the specific grounds on which he or she is seeking the divorce. The complaint should then be filed in an appropriate superior court with the help of the lawyer.

Georgia: Divorce VS Annulment

Couples residing in the State of Georgia who want to dissolve their marriage have only three options to choose from: divorce; annulment; or a decree of separate maintenance granted by courts. Those who want to have the union nullified as if it never happened in the first place opt to file for annulment. This is a ground if one or both parties were defrauded and forced into marriage.

However, an annulment will prove to be difficult to gain if there are children born of the marriage.The Georgia State Family Law states that in this case, the marriage may only be dissolved by divorce. Although it is possible for a couple to live apart without divorcing, it is better to do so for the convenience of both parties.

Based on law, the parties not wishing to divorce may file a separate maintenance action but remains legally married. This, however, will prove to create complications should both or one of them seek remarriage to other people.

This also curtails the financial freedom for one of the spouses. In cases like these, the court will ask one spouse to pay alimony to the other thus creating a dependency of sorts. Unlike in a divorce, the properties will be divided accordingly between the spouses. This is the reason why many opt to take the divorce route,

On the other hand, the law also states that one does not necessarily have to go to court to get a divorce. An agreement may be drawn up between the spouses to resolve all pertinent issues including finances, division of property and custody of children. The agreement becomes the couple’s settlement and must be presented to the court for approval thereby concluding the lawsuit. Matters of child custody and parenting time, however, is always determined by a judge.

Should the complaint be uncontested, divorce may be granted 31 days after serving the defendant. It would take many months if there are disagreements.The spouses should also opt to request for a temporary hearing to thresh out arrangements regarding children and property.

An order issued by the judge to effect these temporary arrangements may also be made to prevent the transfer and selling of assets until the final trial.

The Pedestrian's Guide to Electoral Mathematics - Surveys and Slovin / Sloven's Formula Applications

Written by: RJ Nieto

Surveys. Surveys. Surveys.

I can't believe how clueless a lot of us are, and those that seem to be the smartest turn out to be on the other side of the fence. Here and there we see surveys, "counter-surveys", trending, and lawsuits arising from them, but do we really know what they are talking about in the first place?

If we don't, then we should shut up. But we don't wanna shut up, right? So let's try to get the big picture.

In a TV interview, Loren Legarda said:

"How can we believe the credibility of surveys, can 3000 respondents represent a voting population of 50 million people?"

I was shocked. At face value, what she said sounds reasonable, as she merely uses "common sense" to come up with such a notion. She's clueless.

Then I did some research.

On an entry entitled "Social Weather Station Survey Methods
by Billy Almarinez" in Senator Kit Tatad's Website, the following were stated:

SWS/Pulse Asia Facts:

1. SWS and Pulse Asia (the main firms who do the surveys) do not reveal how they collect sample data.

2. The only things that they make public are the following:
a. the number of respondents
b. the margin of error
c. they "probably" use Slovin's Formula,which is "a generally accepted way
of how to determine the size appropriate for a sample to ensure better representation of the population of a known size."

Furthermore, with no clear way of how Almarinez got the results, Almarinez says the following in his paper:

Almarinez: "In the context of election-related surveys, that would indicate that the survey results may be representative of a population of 6,429 registered voters nationwide."

Now, as a UP Diliman Mathematics Major, I can't help but scratch my forehead.

His math is a little misleading.

Why? Let's do this systematically, from basic theory to computations to conclusion.

Question 1: What is Slovin's Formula and How is it applied in this situation?

Slovin's Formula
In Statistics, Slovin's formula is the generally accepted way to determine the appropriate sample size given the total population and a pre-specified margin of error. It is stated as:



n=[N]/[1+Ne^2]

where:

N = The total population,which in our context is 50 000 000, based on an estimate from the COMELEC.

e = the margin of error. A smaller e means a more accurate result

n = needed sample size. This is the number of respondents who have to be interviewed/analyzed in order to make accurate predictions.

Now, Let's do basic math:

We want to know how many people we need to analyze(n) so that we can accurately predict what a population (N) of 50 million voters will do come the elections, with a margin of error(e) of 2%

i.e.

n = 50 000 000 / [1 + 50 000 000 (0.02^2)] = 2 499.87501 ---> 2500 respondents.

Question 2: How many people do the survey firms analyze?

Pulse Asia and SWS surveys around 1800-2200 respondents for every release, so that begs the question

Question 3: For a country of 50 million voters, and considering that we need about 2500 to get an accurate prediction, why the heck did they interview so few?

I don't know.

Question 4: Does this make their results invalid?

Not necessarily. Lets do a little algebra:

n=[N]/[1+Ne^2] {Slovin's Formula}

n+nNe^2 = N {after cross-multiplying}

nNe^2 = N - n (transposing n to the right}

e^2 = (N - n) / nN {after dividing both sides by nN}

e^2 = (1/n) - (1/N) {after simplifying}

e = sqrt [(1/n) - (1/N)]

What does this mean?

This shows the margin of error given the number of respondents and the total population. If SWS and Pulse Asia interviews a minimum of 1800 people, and with a population of 50 000 000 voters, we get:


e = sqrt(1/1800 - 1/50 000 000) = 0.0235698018 = 2.36% margin of error


Which means that at worst, the margin of error is at 2.4%, which is still VERY LOW.

Question 5: Where did Loren Legarda go wrong?

Well, shes a incredibly smart woman, but apparently she's no smarter in Math than the average Juan. If she says that SWS analyzes 3000 samples for a population of 50 million, then with the same breath, says that its invalid.Seemingly, she does not have ANY idea about what she is talking about, because all mathematics is against her.

Question 6: Where did Professor Almarinez go wrong?


This is the saddest part of my article. Another round of Math please.

n=[N]/[1+Ne^2] {Slovin's Formula}

n+nNe^2 = N {after cross-multiplying}

nNe^2 - N = - n {transpose n to the right, N to the left}

N[ne^2 - 1] = - n {factor out N}

N = -n / [ne^2 - 1]

Now, lets see:

If SWS analyzes 1800 samples [worst-case scenario} with a proposed margin of e = 2% = 0.02,

N = -1800/(1800*.02^2-1) = 6 428.57143 ~ 6429 people, which is what Almarinez got.

But then, he did something wrong.

He assumed that the error is EXACTLY 2%, not putting in mind the extra decimal places after it.

Why? If I were someone who will publish news for public consumption, I would round figures to make it more readable.

Hence, 2% may range from anything between 1.50% and 2.49%, meaning that e can be "as bad as 2.49%" and can still be called 2% on the newspapers.

Through simple arithmetic, at the worst-case scenario of e = 2.49% = .0249

n = 50 000 000/(1+50 000 000*0.0249^2) = 1 612.82519 ~ 1613 respondents.

This means, for a population of 50 million, and error of 2.49%, we need to interview only 1613 people.

A little more tweaking and in reference to a calculation above, with e = 0.0235698018, we get n = 1799 ~ 1800.

So how did he go wrong?

He took things literally, without even asking SWS or Pulse Asia about the EXACT figure for the error margin. He did all the math right, but lacked common sense. In the field of statistics, theory is not everything. Intuition also plays a big part.

Final Questions:



1. From all these, are the SWS/Pulse Asia Surveys invalid?

Not necessarily. You see, a margin of about 2.5% is not bad.

In short, the surveys still make sense as far as theory and so Almarinez's point on SWS's and Pulse's incompliance with respect to the "dogma" that is Slovin's formula, is invalid. He did the basic math right, but the math that he used is too basic.

2. So the Math is right, where could the survey firms go wrong?

The Questionnaire.

If you were someone who cannot read, or in a hurry, or has not yet done some research, then someone approaches you and asks you about who you vote for, or was asked in front of a friend/boss/acquaintance who will see your answers, what would you do?

Some of the scenarios:

a. tick the first option, just to get it over with
b. tick a random option, again, just to get it over with.
c. tick on a candidate that is aligned to your companion's views, in order to avoid an argument
d. tick undecided to avoid an argument with your friend, but you know for yourself that your mind is already made up.

But we will have NO idea on how SWS and Pulse does data collection methods, all these stuff will be left to speculation.

3. So what do I do with those survey results?

The reasonable way to utilize those results will be to use them as a guide on how to plan further action. If you feel that your candidate is lagging behind based on what the surveys say, then act accordingly. If your candidate is ahead then continue whatever you're doing because you are probably doing it right.

But to simply say that Surveys tend to sway public opinions just because they do, is something that should not come from someone who has had sufficient secondary education.

To simply shrug science away, just because it is inconvenient for us, is a very very bad idea. Just look at what happened in Europe's middle ages. Do not let history repeat itself.